十点睡觉俱乐部

The Temperature Is Starting to Drop

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 14:01:58 +0000

I went out for a walk in the evening both the day before yesterday and today. At the exact same time and place, a moderate rain began to fall, forcing me to start walking in the rain. Yes, the temperature is starting to drop, and I can feel autumn again.

It just so happened that I recently tracked down and watched two movies, Midnight in Paris and A Rainy Day in New York, which felt quite fitting for the occasion—though walking alone in the rain can hardly be called romantic.

I didn't use to know how the books I've read and the movies I've watched affected me—it was something vague that I couldn't quite put into words. Re-watching Midnight in Paris this time, a sense of certainty arose in my heart that I have indeed been influenced by them. Perhaps this is one of the positive changes that experience and wisdom have brought to me.

Not so many years ago, I held the extreme view that people shouldn't change too much, or at least shouldn't make a complete 180-degree turn in their attitude—how naive. Now I feel that people only grow when they change.

At the start of the holiday, when my mother contacted me, the topics she brought up were barely any different from the last time, or the time before that. It has been a long time since I felt any shift in her views; she agrees with this herself and doesn't mind it at all.

Of course, we shouldn't expect anything from our family. In fact, wanting anyone to change is a sign of an immature and unhealthy mindset. It's just that I haven't yet reached the state where talking about any topic or spending any time with my family is a pure pleasure.

While taking a shower, a melody suddenly rang in my mind:
If we never learn, we been here before
Why are we always stuck and running from
The bullets?
The bullets.

After thinking for a minute or two, I finally remembered the title of the song. Then I started wondering why I suddenly thought of this song, especially since I was clearly humming a different one while showering. Perhaps there is no reason at all. Or perhaps there is a sudden yet hidden thread of connection—that the temperature is dropping.

If You Also Hold the S&P 500, AI, and Semiconductors

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 06:21:07 +0000

Not investment advice

Ranking of risk events and triggering conditions (at the current 7,700-point level, risk is not high; only assessing the risks after further gains):

Consensus data, S&P EPS, and CapEx growth rates:

Consensus earnings for the S&P in 2026 have already been revised upward to around $362 (higher than the $334 I gave in Episode 300 of the members-only program; I need to do a detailed comparative verification after the Q3 earnings reports to avoid being misled by overly optimistic sell-side data), representing a year-over-year increase of about +32% to +35%; 2027 is around $415–$417, up about +11% to +15% YoY; for 2028, Goldman Sachs projects around $460, up about +11% YoY. There is no official guidance yet on full-year 2027 CapEx for major hyperscalers—consensus sits around $1.1 trillion (+38% YoY), while Goldman expects $1.2 trillion (+54% YoY); for 2028, it is around $1.4 trillion, with CapEx growth dropping to just about +12%.

There are three key time points:

January–February 2027: Q4 earnings releases, when the Big Four tech giants will provide full-year 2027 CapEx figures for the first time (this could potentially be moved up to Q3 earnings, but is not the baseline assumption). Once it comes in below 1.1 trillion, it will trigger the first EPS downward revision. Whether this sparks a major sell-off depends on where the S&P is trading at the time; this is the earliest hard trigger. If the S&P remains parked in the 7,500–7,700 range, downside risk is modest.

First half of 2027: Assuming that in January–February, Q4 2026 earnings reports reveal no downward revision to CapEx—maintaining consensus or slightly upgrading it—the S&P 500 quickly surges to around 8,500–8,800 driven by bullish sentiment (running too fast). As depreciation expectations for the second half of 2027 get priced in, the upward trend in consensus EPS will stall, forming an interim peak before pulling back to around 8,000. If it merely stays near 8,000 throughout the first half, that would actually be safe.

Second half of 2027 to early 2028: Depreciation sets in (a certainty), accompanied by semiconductor gross margins dropping sharply to 55% (not a certainty); 2028 EPS would then face substantial downward revisions, slowing to low single-digit YoY growth compared to 2027, sending the S&P back below 8,000.

Signs of an AI bubble, or conditions triggering a major pullback / bubble-bursting moment:

AI revenues and expenditures fail to match and get debunked. Consensus 2027 CapEx for major hyperscalers is around $1.1 trillion; breaking even on depreciation and operating expenses requires about $300 billion in annual AI revenue. With total CapEx of about $1.73 trillion over 2026–2027, under a required 15% return on capital, Goldman Sachs's analysis of the Big Four's 2026–2027 order backlogs suggests that just a portion of these backlogs can meet the revenue requirement, meaning it has not been debunked yet. Looking further ahead, a cumulative revenue of roughly $1.42 trillion will be needed over 2028–2030 to sustain this, which remains to be verified (requiring tracking every quarter); if debunked, the fallout will be most severe (a bubble-bursting drop).

Current semiconductor gross margins of 70% are being treated as the normal narrative, driven by robust short-term demand and supply shortages. In reality, the 15-year historical average gross margin for semiconductors is around 55%. If CapEx growth decelerates in the future from around +100% down to +38% and then to +12%, yet continues to be packaged as infinite demand, caution is warranted. If gross margins begin a substantive pullback, or CapEx falls short of 1.1 trillion, while market EPS estimates still refuse to be revised downward—instead pushing the S&P above 8,500 and heavily overvaluing semiconductor stocks for more than a year—a pullback of at least 15%–20% in the S&P is clearly foreseeable.

Vision Global Finance YouTube Members Exclusive

Eat Well — A Song of Love and Hate

Sat, 03 Oct 2026 04:22:47 +0000

Watching the movie brought to mind Babel's Red Cavalry, Salinger's Nine Stories, and Bob Dylan.

Clearly, it is an excellent anti-war film; I found myself choking up several times along the way.

Not long after the beginning, a casual, careless promise made by a father is questioned by his daughter: "Didn't we agree you'd come back once a year?" "Do you know how expensive plane tickets are? I'll be back in a couple of years."

In reality, most people become like this as they grow older, as if the more they talk, the less they care about the weight of their words, revealing a sense of giving up on themselves. Promises look less and less like promises; the word has almost lost its intended meaning. I don't like it.

Xu Fu is that common positive image of a northern Chinese man—rough-and-ready, skilled, hardworking, and rarely showing his true inner emotions. Meanwhile, Junsheng is almost an idealized character: brave, upright, kind, intelligent, devoted, and loving.

The transition from restaurant chef to partner stemmed from a war. Relying on an exclusive liquor license, they also made a fortune from the war. — Humans seem to find it hard to realize what they truly want; sometimes even when they have reached their destination, they still refuse to stop, and so they wander further and further.

Orphans who lost their parents in the war, soldiers executing combat plans locally, foreigners desperately trying to make money, and local government officials not supported by the US military are all in this restaurant, showing every side of the war.

The foreshadowing of what happens to Old Zha was laid early on; this key turning point should be where the movie begins to express its stance on war.

To the American soldiers who believe those orphans are born terrorists, their own family and friends lost their lives in various terrorist attacks. So even for a fully armed American soldier, seeing the gaze cast by an orphan immediately activates their psychological defense mechanism, making it impossible to remain rational.

Orphans who lost their parents in the war serve delicious food to customers, including these soldiers, in a battlefield restaurant. However, at the slightest spark of conflict, the gunpowder of hatred in their hearts is instantly ignited without reservation.

Their hatred is absolutely real.

Time and again, Saif is pulled back from the edge of the abyss by Xu Fu and Jun Sheng. Every time Saif says he understands, they say: "You don't understand crap." Xu Fu and Jun Sheng lived through the war, but they are not parties to it. This makes the bond between them and Saif all the more pure; Saif truly understands this, which is why he would save them, even at the cost of his own life.

Aside from the help Lao Zha provides in business, Lao Zha's love for his daughter also touches Xu Fu, who places his own family's photo in front of him every time he eats. Making the food Lao Zha's daughter loves and that simple "open your mouth" while feeding Lao Zha is Xu Fu's way of expressing his feelings, and Lao Zha understands it too.

These acts of love are all real, too.

Terrorists use hatred education and religious beliefs to brainwash ignorant, innocent children. Children growing up amidst chaos and hatred will be misled even if they only overhear it. Had he not seen with his own eyes a familiar person being sent away as cannon fodder—when he himself had set off thinking he would become a hero of the resistance—Saif would probably have found it hard to realize what was driving him.

The ignorant, naive heart of a child can be shrouded in a black veil by the instigation of hatred, but sincere love can naturally lift it away. Smelling the delicious risotto, they will happily say how good it smells. But when an adult willingly places their soul in endless hatred, the role that sincere love plays is simply—"open your mouth."

This world can be roughly divided into two: one is the world in the eyes of those who control the apparatus of violence, where interests are paramount, and personal emotions, including life, are just accessories even if they are considered. The other world is the world of each of us ordinary people, which is full of love, hatred, passion, and enmity. Fortunately, we can make our own choice.

Today, I'm a core member of the 10 PM Bedtime Cl…

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:06:48 +0000

Today, I'm a core member of the 10 PM Bedtime Club!

September 2026 Review

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 08:35:05 +0000

Said goodbye to September. This month went by somewhat quietly, leaving behind only 3 short posts in my blog, totaling about 485 words. Though the word count is small, they accurately recorded the shifts in my state of mind during this period.

At the end of the month, I saw a netizen on V2EX writing about his experience of missing out on a wonderful girl. Between the lines, one could tell he was well aware of how great she was, yet greedily hoped she would give up even more to accompany him far from her hometown. Humans are just like that sometimes, easily overestimating their own sacrifices while ignoring the sincerity of others. Once those overlooked disappointments pile up enough, a clear-headed person will naturally never look back. Watching other people's stories, I also silently hoped for myself: I hope I can always remain clear-headed, yet still have the courage to offer my sincere heart. 'My heart is on the tree, pluck it if you will'—what this requires is a sense of composure and sincerity.

On the last workday before the long holiday, I walked to work listening to music. Since I hadn't made any travel plans, my heart was as calm as still water. Looking at the hurried crowds around me, the difference between going on holiday and going to work suddenly seemed to vanish for me.

This undertone of calm probably comes from my recent attempts to perceive more of life's details. As I slowly reduced procrastination, gaps began to open up in my life. I started to notice and remember those little shops that I used to forget the moment I turned away, and to feel those repetitive yet warm daily routines. These tiny details are finally no longer just passing me by, but are truly settling into my heart.

I hope that in the coming October, I can continue to maintain this sense of relaxation and sharpness, making life more concrete within this quiet pace.

October 1st

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 02:07:23 +0000

First workout of October is done.
Among the things where effort guarantees results, working out is probably the simplest of them all.

While working out, I looked through the glass and saw a white-haired elderly woman holding hands with a middle-aged man, probably in his forties, taking a walk. Or more precisely, doing some kind of rehabilitation exercise. The middle-aged man had a shy, embarrassed look on his face that didn't match his age, while the elderly woman looked quite hale and hearty.

The florist stuffed five or six grand opening celebration bouquets, prepared early in the morning, one by one onto her electric scooter, getting ready to deliver them to their destination. When she set off, I saw that the bouquets had completely obscured her back.

Trying to Feel More of Life's Details

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 15:33:39 +0000

Still remember the signature crepe from Sailor's Knot Cafe?

Recently, the biggest change in me is that I've been procrastinating much less; I just get a lot of things done right away.

Along with this, I've started paying more attention to the details of life. It feels like my experiences of life are actually settling into my heart, rather than being forgotten the moment I turn around.

In the past, I wouldn't even pay attention to the names of the restaurants I liked to eat at, always saying things like "that what's-it-called place over there" or "oh, so it was this place, I've eaten here before." In this regard, girls seem to have a natural talent—*** Restaurant is delicious!** And that one is pretty good too.

Writing up to this point, I think maybe the saying that girls are more sensitive just means that girls love life more than guys do.

The Workday Before the Long Holiday

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:57:23 +0000

The last day of September, the last workday before the long holiday.

Right now, on my way to work, Sound Toy's song is playing in my headphones—No One Can Be Closer to Each Other Than Us.

My mind is as calm as a lake, and I expect it to stay that way all day. Nothing and no one will cause even a ripple in my emotions.

Based on how they handle these three days, people can be divided into three types: those who take three days off to get a long holiday, those who want to take off but have no leave, and those who have leave but choose not to take it.

I belong to the third type, because I don't know where to go. When I'm not traveling, working and being on holiday make no difference to me.

Saw a netizen on V2EX missing out on a great girl

Tue, 29 Sep 2026 13:20:00 +0000

Judging by the tone of his writing, the guy also knew she was a great girl,

but he wanted her to give up even more to accompany him far away from her hometown.

People are just so greedy, seemingly never satisfied.

Often overestimating their own sacrifices while overlooking those of others.

The disappointment of having one's sincerity ignored is enough to make a clear-headed person never look back.

~~
Hope to stay clear-headed myself, while still having the courage to give my sincere heart.

The heart is on the tree, you have only to pick it.